Red Storm Rising
Last week I heard someone humorously remark that the situation in Georgia seemed reminescent of the beginning of a Tom Clancy novel, which got me to thinking. I read the novel "Red Storm Rising" in middle school and can vaguely remember the plot; the Soviet Union launches a war to control oil fields in the middle east. It continues on, and through a system of alliances, NATO ends up fighting the Soviets in a protracted battle across Europe.
Although such a conflict is unlikely in our current state of affairs, it is not impossible. Georgia has been considered for NATO membership. If approved, it would have joined other former Soviet Republics such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the alliance. It would have been much less likely that Russia would have made such aggressive moves into Georgia had it been a member of NATO. And if it had, consequences would certainly have been much more severe.
It certainly makes strategic sense for the Russians to control Georgia, as it contains one of the only major non-Russian controlled oil supply routes to the Europe. Previously Russia has had a virtual monopoly on oil production and extorted considerable sums from satellite nations to allow their oil passage. Now with their monopoly threatened, it's easy for the Russians to feign concern for the South Ossetians and Azbhkians and simply grab the Georgian State, in an attempt to destroy a sovereign,Western leaning democracy to help guarantee their economic security.
Now comes further sabre rattling from the Russians, who state that basing interceptor missiles in Poland or radar equipment in Czechslovakia would "expose" itself to some sort of military response, perhaps even a nuclear first strike. The former Soviet republic of Ukraine has also been warned that admittance into NATO "will trigger a deep crisis in the Russian-Ukrainian relations". This sudden change in language and the extent of Medvedev and Putin's paranoia with the West cannot be underestimated. It has even been reported on Russian state radio that the war with Georgia might have been plotted by Dick Cheney to help get John McCain elected. I would hate to give any credence to such a rumor, but in light of this current administration's record, I can't rule it out (as outlandish as it seems).
It seems that Russia, flush with cash from high oil prices, is rebuilding its military and seeking to reassert itself into the world stage. At a minimum, it seems we are primed for another cold war with Russia. In a worst case scenario, we have so many troops tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan that we might be at our most vulnerable point since WWII. If Russia were to start a preemptive war, it might be difficult for the US to respond.
So far, the US has had little to offer the Georgians other than humanitarian aid and "our prayers". The threat of expulsion from the G8 has largely fallen on deaf ears. And despite several truces, the Russians are continuing to occupy Georgia and destroy much of its strategic assests. It seems that NATO and the US have lost their influence and it will be difficult to convince the Russians to refrain from interjecting themselves into the affairs of its former states.
Update: The New York Times has reported that Russia has positioned SS-21 short range ballistic missiles within South Ossetia. These are not only conventional, but are also capable of carrying nuclear and biological warheads.
.
Although such a conflict is unlikely in our current state of affairs, it is not impossible. Georgia has been considered for NATO membership. If approved, it would have joined other former Soviet Republics such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the alliance. It would have been much less likely that Russia would have made such aggressive moves into Georgia had it been a member of NATO. And if it had, consequences would certainly have been much more severe.
It certainly makes strategic sense for the Russians to control Georgia, as it contains one of the only major non-Russian controlled oil supply routes to the Europe. Previously Russia has had a virtual monopoly on oil production and extorted considerable sums from satellite nations to allow their oil passage. Now with their monopoly threatened, it's easy for the Russians to feign concern for the South Ossetians and Azbhkians and simply grab the Georgian State, in an attempt to destroy a sovereign,Western leaning democracy to help guarantee their economic security.
Now comes further sabre rattling from the Russians, who state that basing interceptor missiles in Poland or radar equipment in Czechslovakia would "expose" itself to some sort of military response, perhaps even a nuclear first strike. The former Soviet republic of Ukraine has also been warned that admittance into NATO "will trigger a deep crisis in the Russian-Ukrainian relations". This sudden change in language and the extent of Medvedev and Putin's paranoia with the West cannot be underestimated. It has even been reported on Russian state radio that the war with Georgia might have been plotted by Dick Cheney to help get John McCain elected. I would hate to give any credence to such a rumor, but in light of this current administration's record, I can't rule it out (as outlandish as it seems).
It seems that Russia, flush with cash from high oil prices, is rebuilding its military and seeking to reassert itself into the world stage. At a minimum, it seems we are primed for another cold war with Russia. In a worst case scenario, we have so many troops tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan that we might be at our most vulnerable point since WWII. If Russia were to start a preemptive war, it might be difficult for the US to respond.
So far, the US has had little to offer the Georgians other than humanitarian aid and "our prayers". The threat of expulsion from the G8 has largely fallen on deaf ears. And despite several truces, the Russians are continuing to occupy Georgia and destroy much of its strategic assests. It seems that NATO and the US have lost their influence and it will be difficult to convince the Russians to refrain from interjecting themselves into the affairs of its former states.
Update: The New York Times has reported that Russia has positioned SS-21 short range ballistic missiles within South Ossetia. These are not only conventional, but are also capable of carrying nuclear and biological warheads.
.