The Whistle of a Distant Train

I've been developing a theory as to why Al Gore is not a candidate in the 2008 presidential race. He can't seem to go to any sort speech or event without being asked to run. It seems that there are a huge number of moderate voters who are not satisfied with the current crop of candidates and would easily hand the election to him. So why doesn't he run? I've reached a point where I think that the reason he is not a current candidate is not because he does not intend to run, its that it's politically unfavorable to do so at this point.

Here are four reasons why I believe Al Gore will (or at least should) declare his candidacy for the 2008 elections:

1) He would win (easily) - We already know that Gore won the popular vote in the 2000 election (he won the popular vote by 543,895 votes). People like Al Gore. He's non-threatening, popular and has a populist agenda that the country yearns for after nearly eight years of corporate favoritism. He's a vestige of the feel good days of the Clinton administration where the federal defecit was in decline, environmental protection was important and our nation's reputation was well regarded. Gore has ranked highly in public opinion polls without even being a declared candidate. The current Democratic forerunner, Hillary Clinton would not be able to win the South and is perhaps too polarizing of a figure to win the general election, even when the American public is dying to hand the presidency to a Democrat. Hillary is not as nearly as well liked as John Kerry, who lost the 2004 election... and after that, the stakes are too high to let this one get away. I don't think that the strategists at DNC headquarters are seriously banking on a Hillary win.

2)  It's not time - Al Gore declaring his candidacy early would yield no discernible benefit. As a clear frontrunner, he would able to bring in considerable numbers of Democrats, moderates and Republicans with guilty consciences (like myself a few years ago). He doesn't need to do debates, because he already has a firm record on which to stand. Entering the field early would mean that he would be increasingly criticized and swift-boated on all sides, by Democratic challengers and Republican contenders. This would reduce his campaign's momentum considerably; and the certainty of his winning would be eroded the longer he was forced to play this game with other candidates. It's political game theory a la Karl Rove.

He's remained visible, releasing books, movies and making a large number of apperances on television. Speculation on his candidacy would only work to his advantage. Gore could wait until almost a month before the primaries begin, sweep in on fever pitch of optimism and easily cruise to the nomination. Hillary would get the VP nod and the fears of many moderates would be calmed (note how many people hate Cheney and yet he is still VP). Gore & Clinton take the 2008 election, handily defeating Giulianni & Thompson.

3) He's a boy scout - After a distinguished career of public service, it seems unthinkable that Gore would refuse the call when America is beating down his door to run. One could just analyze the title of his book The Assault On Reason for a clue. Why would a person dedicating a significant part of his career towards the problem of climate change refuse to hold the office that could do the most about it? Is that a rational position? What could Gore possibly do by lobbying or giving speechs that would be anywhere as effective as being the President?

If Al Gore really believes in global climate change, he would become President. He would be able to restore the considerable cuts that were made in the budgets of scientific agencies for research. He would direct the Department of Energy to invest considerable funds towards research and development for renewable energy technologies and alternative fuels. He could push to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and enact higher corporate average fuel economy standards.The possibilities for enacting policy are limitless.

An Inconvenient Truth is proof that he is an activist at heart.... and as discouraging as the battle has been, he knows he's the world's biggest spokesman for global climate change..... and that he could affect US and International policy for decades to come in his capacity as President. On his website, he has said that the tipping point for reversing the effect of climate change could be in as little as 10 years, and based on this timeline.... he has to run, or otherwise there will be no chance to enact significant measures in time to prevent a worldwide environmental catastrophe. Gore has stated that climate change is a "moral issue" and how he could refuse this moral obligation would negate everything he's said in the past about public service.

4) He's pissed - Not only was the election stolen from him, but much of the environmental laws and policies he had worked to enact have been gutted or stripped of funding. The government is sprinting to finanical insolvency and full of partisan hacks who are running democracy into the ground in the name of special interests. We have truly seen how bad things can get when incomptence is heralded as a virtue, and party loyalty is the only qualification one must hold to handle our nation's most important affairs. And as a Vietnam veteran, he is aware of the disatrous consequences of continuing a conflict indefinately.

He gets in office and cleans house...rights the wrongs and makes it all good again.  The way it should have been the first time. Then he leaves office after eight years (yes a two termer I predict) with a timeless legacy as the man who saved the planet and preserved our democracy for generations to come. Thats a pretty big thing to ignore, regardless of how fed up you are with politics.