Daniel Addington

I am forecasting 30 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms for tonight as a cold front is expected to finally arrive. The front is forecasted to continue to drop Southward giving the area a chance of thunderstorms all day tomorrow.  After front passes then temperatures should drop from the high 80's like they have been the last couple of days to the low 80's.  My forecasted high and low for tomorrow is 82 and 67.  Unisys weather website showing an abundance of moisture next week which puts the area in a different weather pattern.  The unusually high number of fronts that have been passing through the area have made this month an exciting month to forecast for.  I am currently trying to put together a winter weather outlook for this Ohio River Valley and also the Tennessee Valley.

Outflow boundaries are expected today in association with a cold front just to the North of the Ohio River Valley.  Cold front is expected to move south over night allowing for stronger convection and showers and thunderstorms across the region.  Along with the increasing moisture the air mass will become weak to moderately unstable.  Hot temperatures over the last couple of days forecasted to cool down after cold front passes. Heavy rains expected up to an inch of rain for the region and we are still waiting for the cold front to swing south. I am forecasting a high for tomorrow of 88 to 85 depending on how rain-cooled the air becomes.

Hot conditions will continue for the Ohio River Valley.  A strong area of high pressure is situated over the region and is keeping things relatively dry  and very hot.  Forecasted high for today is 93 with only a 20 % chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm.  A warm front exixts from the Great Lakes to Southern Tennessee and is connected to a stalled front which stretches from Northern Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.  Conditions expected to be hot and dry until Wednesday. I have forecasted a 30 percent chance for Wednesday and a 40 percent chance for Thursday. Over the course of those two days warm front  is expected to come down and affect our weather.  Tropical Storm Edouard possesses sustained winds at 45 mph and is expected to continue on its track across Southern Texas but taking more of a West/NorthWest direction towards the end of the storm's life.

The 20 percent I had forecasted for today became 100 as I observed a thunderstorm due to the heating of the day.  Models indicated the convective temperature to be 88 and I read an observed temperature of 91.  Storm was weak and thunder was observed off and on for most of the remainder of the day.  I went to Earl's sounding website and saw a moderately unstable atmosphere plotted.  Temperatures for this coming Monday are forecasted to be 95 degrees by most models.  Surface convection is on the decrease as the surface boundary continues to move South away from the region.

Wednesday's models were going for a rain chance of 80 percent so my forecast inluded a rain chance of 70 percent.  A frontal boundary in association with a North West flow is forecasted to pass over the Ohio River Valley and bring with it a large area of showers and thunderstorms. So far it has rained all day with embeded cells of thunderstorms.  The frontal boundary is located in lower New England and stretches into Southern Wisconsin.  Heavy amounts of rain can be received along the frontal boundary and I am still watching the sattelite for outflow boundaries to expand and sweep through the area and could wait for heating to occur and spark thunderstorm development.  I noticed that the models did not pick up on rain cooled air from yesterday. The temperature dropped from 92 to 70 over the course of the afternoon in response to the showers but the models still forecasted an afternoon termperature of 82.  More research is needed to understand this.

More thunderstorms are forecast for the Ohio River Valley as an out flow boundary expanded through the region and day time is expected to allow thunderstorm activity to develop through out the afternoon. Lifted Indicies are now at -4.  The models are showing a very large area of high pressure that will dominate the weather next week and force temperatures to climb into the upper ninetys and conditions will be very dry. The meso-scale short waves have been the major weather maker for this area for the past few weeks and will continue to do so until the area of high pressure arrives.  Another short wave is expected for tomorrow but it looks to be a better chance for rain as models are showing more abundant available moisture.  Energy for these short waves is coming from the cold front located from Northern Wisconsin to Western Nebraska.

Even though the region is lacking abundant moisture short waves and outflow boundaries are sparking off showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio River Valley.  Lifted indicies were earlier forecasted to be -3 and they are still holding. A cold front is draping out of the North and causing rain from Virginia to Alabama. In addition there is a stationary front causing showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-West.

Weather was much like yesterday with the exception of more clouds in the way of stratocumulus.  I forecasted a 30 % chance of rain today and some areas of Northeast Tennessee received precipitation.  The cold front that had brought showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio River Valley has now moved to the Eastern U.S. coast and high pressure continues to hinder showers and thunderstorms.  An area of high pressure centered above the "Four Corners"  and a high located in Western Canada are working together with the clockwise circulation to usher in cold dry air from the North and warm moist air from the South. As a result strong to severe thunderstorm activity is expected in the Great Plains. For tomorrow I'm forecasting a high of 88, low of  59 and a 20 percent chance of rain.

As predicted the models called for very little rain and I forecasted for no rain across the Ohio River Valley. No rain has been observed at the Tri-Cities Regional airport and skies have been cloudy with Cirrus and Cumulus clouds.  The high pressure that has been over the area today is expected to move so that any storm system that develops Northwest of the area will be brought down into the area by way of the clockwise circulation of the high pressure system. Even though there is a high, there is also a quasi-stationary front extending from Kansas to Alabama.  Record lows are expected to be set over the next few days until the warm front makes its way North.  For tomorrow I am forecasting partly cloudy and a 30 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms.

Today looks to be a day for severe weather across the Ohio River Valley. Yesterday the models showed lifted indicies from minus 5 to minus 7 which indicates very high potenital for severe weather across the region.  A cold front sweeping down out of the Northwest is what is responsible for the incresease in potential thunderstorm activity.  Multiple outflow boundaries have been observed and today's high is expected at 92 degrees F so we have plenty of heating for convection to take place.

Models show high pressure aloft  across the lower Mississippi River Valley.  There is a surfac high across the Southeastern portion of the nation.  Yesterday a cold front was located moving into the Mississippi River Valley and may affect the weather today.  Very warm temperatures ( into the lower and mid 90s) will be present in the Ohio River Valley with very high dew point temperature (in the upper 60's and lower 70's).  Strong and possibly severe thunderstorms are expected across the area as the evening wears on and the atmosphere becomes more unstable.  Cristobal currently at 65 mph not expected to make landfall with U.S.  Dolly currently at 55 mph expected to venture across Southern Texas. An observed high in the gulf of mexico is making use of the clockwise circulation and bringing in moisture to Southern Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia as well as most of Florida. An approaching low is bringing showers to the Four Corners.

Tropical Storm Bertha is still spinning out in the upper Atlantic ocean with peak wind speeds of 60 mph. She is currently located at  34.5 North  59.2 West and is still expected to continue on its North Easterly track and die somewhere southwest of Greenland. This storm is very long-lived by hurrican and tropical storm standards. It now is the owner of the record of the Eastern most storm to be a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.  Two other areas of potential tropical development are of concern. In the South Eastern portion of the Carribean sea we are still watching an area of low pressure that was well organized on Wednesday and Tuesday has lost some intensity and has become less organized and thus lessened the potential for tropical development. This area is still moving due East at 20-25 mph. Another area of low pressure is found in the SouthWestern portion of the Carribean sea which is a tropical wave which is expected to track Westward and affect Honduras and Nicaragua later today and on early Friday.  It is still high pressure over the Ohio River Valley that is keeping the region warm and skies only partly cloudy with fair weather cumulus.  The SouthEastern part of the nation is experiencing showers and thunderstorms in association with a front that had become stationary but has now moved off shore and the low associated with that will continue to move up the Eastern sea board and affect the Ohio River Valley on Friday where I have forecasted a 30 percent rain chance.

A strong cold front moved through the Ohio River Valley over the weekend and made a substantial dent in the rain total deficit.  The rain deficit is now 4.43 inches but the rain total for the month is now 2.28 which is .32 inches above normal so it has been a big rain event during the last two weeks. Now a stalled frontal boundary lingers on the Atlantic coast and drapes across the SouthEast and stretches to the Texas Pan Handle.  Now to take the rain's place is  a very large area of high pressure which will dry out the region and give way to clear skies.

An approaching high that is quite large has settled over the Ohio River Valley.  No rain is forecasted for the area however a cold front is expected to approach the region late Thursday which will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Heavy rains are forecast for the Southwestern United States due to the cold front extending down into Western Texas.

A slow moving cold front extends from the Great Lakes down through the Ohio River Valley and West from Alabama to Southern Texas.  This cold front is responisible for producing off and on showers and thunderstorms along its boundary today.  I forecasted 50 percent rain today for the Tri-Cities and tomorrow I'm dropping it down to 30 percent and for Tuesday a high looks like it might move over the area on Monday night.  A strong High pressure system will drive up the high temperatures in the Southwest.