Weather Discussion 3: 5-16-2008
DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN INTO THE EVENING ON TO THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS DURING SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET HAS SET UP OVER TENNESSEE AS A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR, LEAVING THE VALLEY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THE NEXT THREAT FOR RAIN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FORCES THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY'S WEATHER SHOULD BE CLEAR AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE TEXAS REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE A SUMMERLIKE TURN FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY EAST.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57
SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, 60% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 73, LOW 54
MONDAY: SUNNY SKIES AND WARM, HIGH 74, LOW 56
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SURFACE ANALYSIS
Posted at 06:34PM May 16, 2008 by arbowlin in General | Comments[0]
Weather Discussion 2: 5-15-2008
DISCUSSION...RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD INCREASE POP BY THE LATE EVENING.
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KNOXVILLE AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST REGION WHERE SEVERAL ACCOUNTS OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS WELL TO THE SOUTH, THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TOO FAR OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA AND MAKES ITS WAY OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA. RAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS IT WILL FILL IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SET UP FOR A WARM AND CLEAR SATURDAY AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO COULD FORM INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
FRIDAY: RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING SKIES LATE, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 70, LOW 56
SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57
SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS, 40% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 73, LOW 54
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SURFACE ANALYSIS
Posted at 06:34PM May 16, 2008 by arbowlin in General | Comments[0]
Weather Discussion 1: 5-14-2008
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPPED THROUGH ILLINOIS, MISSOURI, AND ARKANSAS. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND RISE RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM...MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED INSTABILITY HAVE TAKEN SHAPE OVER ARKANSAS, CREATING A REGION OF STRONG STORMS, BUT WILL RUN INTO COOLER, YET MOIST CONDITIONS OVER TENNESSEE, POTENTIALLY DECREASING THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH STORM CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE PATH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL DETERMINE SPECIFIC CHANCES INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...RAIN LASTS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. COLD FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, BUT TAPERS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND CLEAR SKIES RETURN FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
THURSDAY: RAIN LIKELY, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, 80% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 70, LOW 63
FRIDAY: RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING SKIES, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 71, LOW 56
SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57
SURFACE ANALYSIS
Posted at 06:34PM May 16, 2008 by arbowlin in General | Comments[0]