Thursday May 22, 2008

Weather Discussion 7: 5-22-2008

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE SET UP SHOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE HELPED TO REDUCE THE ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR TODAY.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 80 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN THIS REGION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OF OVER THE PLAINS STATES OF OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND NEBRASKA.  A WARM FRONT LADEN WITH MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A LARGE COLD POOL THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE PLAINS REGION LEAVING THEM WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  WILL BE WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM AS THE DAY CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER OR STORM ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  VALLEY IS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW 40'S.  UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80'S FOR THE WEEKEND.  SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN COMING CLOSER TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59

SATURDAY: WARM AND CLEAR, HIGH 80, LOW 56

SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH 83, LOW 59

850 MB SURFACE MAP

500 MB SURFACE MAP

SURFACE ANALYSIS