Thursday June 05, 2008 Weather Discussion 16: 6-5-2008
DISCUSSION...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND POTENTIALLY SEND TEMPS INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (RECORD FOR TODAY IS 96). MAJORITY OF SEVERE WEATHER, AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS, IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SET UP SHOP ACROSS THAT REGION. LOW LEVEL JET, AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP FOR A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA. CAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY HIGH, BUT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN BY THE AFTERNOON, THUS SPARKING THE SEVERE STORMS. SINCE THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED 3 STRAIGHT SYSTEMS IN AS MANY DAYS, FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST ONCE AGAIN FOR A 3RD STRAIGHT DAY OF TORNADOES, HAIL, AND STRONG WINDS.
SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH BRINGING RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR THE INCREASED HEATING. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE VALLEY TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF TENNESSE AND THE CHANCE OF ADVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 70 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM...RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN A FEW PLACES. SYSTEMS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ELUDE THE SOUTH BY RIDGING OVER THE TOP THROUGH THE MIDWEST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COULD POSSIBLY COME BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
FRIDAY: SUNNY, CLEAR, AND HOT, HIGH 93, LOW 71
SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, HIGH 93, LOW 72
SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT AGAIN, HIGH 93, LOW 71
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Wednesday June 04, 2008 Weather Discussion 15: 6-4-2008
DISCUSSION...SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY, INDIANA, AND OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BERMUDA HIGH IS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR YESTERDAY FELL THROUGH ALTHOUGH ALL THE RIGHT ELEMENTS WERE IN PLACE (SLIGHT INSTABILITY, HIGH DEW POINT, HIGH HUMIDITY, UPPER 80 DEGREE TEMPS). ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COVERED THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES. STILL IN BETTER STANDING DROUGHT-WISE HERE IN THE VALLEY WITH THE REGION BEING 8 INCHES BETTER THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR.
SHORT TERM...BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL WILL BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR OUR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...CLEAR SKIES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SENDING TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS THE WEEK GOES ON. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHANCES STILL AROUND 20%.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
THURSDAY: CLEAR AND GETTING HOTTER, HIGH 91, LOW 69
FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, HIGH 90, LOW 69
SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 87, LOW 67
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Tuesday June 03, 2008 Weather Discussion 14: 6-3-2008
DISCUSSION...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A SURFACE FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD. SYSTEM IS ALREADY TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. MAJORITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONTAINED TO ILLINOIS, INDIANA, OHIO, AND KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM...STORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND INCREASED HEATING TAKES PLACE OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT IF YOU DO GET A THUNDERSTORM, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY, BUT MOST OF THAT WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING TEMPS UP TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. MAKE SURE TO LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTSIDE TO THE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY HUMID. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMES ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 92, LOW 69
THURSDAY: CLEAR AND GETTING HOTTER, HIGH 92, LOW 69
FRIDAY: MUGGY, HIGH 90, LOW 69
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INFRARED SATELLITE
Monday June 02, 2008 Weather Discussion 12: 6-2-2008
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TREKS FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOW 60S, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, IS FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SEVERAL POTENT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE MOIST, UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM...STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OR BREAK UP. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY SLIGHT HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OCCUPIES OUR AREA. PLAN TO KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. TEMPS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 80S TO CLOSER TO 90 WITH A CLEAR UP IN THE FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
TUESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 84, LOW 63
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM IN THE AFTERNOON, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 89, LOW 68
THURSDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 89, LOW 69
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Saturday May 31, 2008 Weather Discussion 12: 5-30-2008
DISCUSSION...ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A SMALL SHORTWAVE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM OVER THE REGION. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND IS WEAKER THAN COMPARED TO THURSDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK.
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE WARM, MOIST, SEMI-UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OF THE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE AT SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS FORECAST AS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. FLATTENED RIDGE USHERS IN WESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY DIMINISH SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BY LOWERING THE DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. MAIN RISK IS STILL FOR STRONG WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE DAYTIME AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRONT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MOSTLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, ONCE AGAIN, EDGES EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY FOR MONDAY, SETTING US UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW 80S. CLOUDS THICKEN UP AGAIN BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM LINGERS IN THE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED STORMS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90 FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 87, LOW 67
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 83, LOW 60
MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, CLOSER TO AVERAGE, HIGH 82, LOW 64
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INFRARED SATELLITE
Thursday May 29, 2008 Weather Discussion 11: 5-29-2008
SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AS FOG BEGINS TO CLEAR AND SOME LOW DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTH EXIT THE AREA. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGES. STILL GOING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR TODAY, BUT THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP FOR LATER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL LOWER OFF INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH THOSE CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES FOR FRIDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY, COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH AND MIDWEST. ALONG WITH THE ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SOME POINT LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL LEAVE THE REGION FOR A GOOD CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER. MOST LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL. NWS STILL HAS US IN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW EVERYTHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 89, LOW 67
SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 86, LOW 66
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 30% CHANCE OF STORMSHIGH 83, LOW 60
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Wednesday May 28, 2008 Weather Discussion 10: 5-28-2008
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. SHIELD OF RAIN STILL REMAINS OVER EAST TENNESSEE WITH SLIGHT BREAKS TOWARDS THE SMOKIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY DID NOT GIVE US THE RAIN COVERAGE I WAS PREDICTING. SYSTEM WAS STATIONARY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE BOWECHOING OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH ALABAMA IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND TRACKED EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY IN THE NORTHERN SECTION. INGREDIENTS WERE IN PLACE WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND DEW POINT VALUES, BUT RAIN SYSTEM BROKE IN TWO LEAVING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRY AND CAUSING US TO CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY YESTERDAY. TODAY, HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND POPS WILL BE LOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY, AND, AS HAS HAPPENED BEHIND A FEW FRONTS IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT SUBSTANTAILLY, LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW DEW POINTS.
LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY COULD MAKE FOR A ROUGH SUNDAY. FRONT IS STILL LOCATED OVER CANADA TODAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, HIGH 84, LOW 60
FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 90, LOW 67
SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67
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Posted by arbowlin ( May 28 2008, 10:43:49 AM EDT ) Permalink Comments [0]
Tuesday May 27, 2008 Weather Discussion 9: 5-27-2008
DISCUSSION...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA IS BEGINNING TO FORM TO THE NORTHWEST OF AS IT STRETCHES FROM HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA BACK TOWARDS JACKSON, TENNESSEE. RAINFALL WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON.
SHORT TERM...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH A SMALL, LOW LEVEL JET AND DAYTIME HEATING LEAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS THE FRONT ADVANCES. AS THE FRONT PASSES TO OUR EAST, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LEAVES OUR AREA.
LONG TERM...EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT STILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS, BUT TAPERING OFF AS THE DAY GOES ALONG. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR LATE WEEK, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND FOR AT LEAST A WEEK, IF NOT THE REST OF THE SEASON. THE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD GIVE US THE CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING, 60% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 81, LOW 63
THURSDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES, WARM, HIGH 83, LOW 60
FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 88, LOW 67
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Monday May 26, 2008 Weather Discussion 8: 5-26-2008
DISCUSSION...THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING TO LATE NIGHT HOURS. RAINS HAVE MOISTENED THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER PREVIOUSLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST WEEK. RAINS TOTALING UP TO A HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO MORE RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TRAILS WELL SOUTH OF THE JET STREAM PATH. A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP LEAD IN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEAVE A CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOS SETS UP A HIGH CHANCE FOR SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION MUCH LIKE LAST THURSDAY, TAKING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF INTO THE LOW 80S/ UPPER 70S LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
TUESDAY: RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, CHANCE OF A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL, 70% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 64
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING, SLIGHTLY COOLER, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 78, LOW 63
THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES, WARM, HIGH 80, LOW 60
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Thursday May 22, 2008 Weather Discussion 7: 5-22-2008
SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE SET UP SHOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE HELPED TO REDUCE THE ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR TODAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 80 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN THIS REGION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OF OVER THE PLAINS STATES OF OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND NEBRASKA. A WARM FRONT LADEN WITH MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A LARGE COLD POOL THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE PLAINS REGION LEAVING THEM WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WILL BE WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
LONG TERM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER OR STORM ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VALLEY IS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW 40'S. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80'S FOR THE WEEKEND. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN COMING CLOSER TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
FRIDAY: CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59
SATURDAY: WARM AND CLEAR, HIGH 80, LOW 56
SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH 83, LOW 59
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Wednesday May 21, 2008 Weather Discussion 6: 5-21-2008
DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH YESTERDAY THAT BROUGHT A QUICK INCH OF RAIN TO SEVERAL COUNTIES ALONG THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STILL DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE EAST COAST BUT WILL NOT AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...CLEAR, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM THE MIDWEST, BUT WITH LOW RH AND WESTERLY WINDS, MOST, IF NOT ALL, WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A FEW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EAST AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.
LONG TERM...MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE START OF THURSDAY. SLIGHT INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FOR THE AREA, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT IT MAY NOT FORM ANY STORMS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80'S FOR SATURDAY ONWARD.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER, SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 77, LOW 57
FRIDAY: CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59
SATURDAY: WARM AND CLEAR, HIGH 81, LOW 59
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Tuesday May 20, 2008 Weather Discussion 5: 5-20-2008
DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TODAY WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE DAY CONTINUES. CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED WHILE CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE INCREASED. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SITS OVER THE REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER THE VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY HAS LEFT HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY WHICH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF A FEW LATE DAY ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM FOR TUESDAY AS THEY ARE TRENDING HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR EARLY AM WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA ALONG WITH NORTHWESTLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE DOWN TO OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH. CHANCES ARE BACK ON THE RISE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORM SET-UP IS IN PLACE. MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY COULD GET THE STORMS GOING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER TOWARDS THE LOW TO MID 80'S AS THE WEEK ENDS.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM, HIGH 77, LOW 57
THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 76, LOW 57
FRIDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59
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Monday May 19, 2008 Weather Discussion 4: 5-19-2008
DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL IMPACT TODAY'S WEATHER LEAVING THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT, A STATIONARY/ WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ALABAMA/ TENNESSEE BORDER WHICH COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOR LATER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF MONDAY. WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS, INCREASING THE CLOUD COVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS COMES IN CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST COULD COMBINE TO GIVE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, TAKING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN COME WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE FORMATION OF A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80'S FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
TUESDAY: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING, TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON, 80% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 74, LOW 59
WEDNESDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 77, LOW 57
THURSDAY: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 73, LOW 57
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Friday May 16, 2008 Weather Discussion 3: 5-16-2008
DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN INTO THE EVENING ON TO THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS DURING SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET HAS SET UP OVER TENNESSEE AS A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR, LEAVING THE VALLEY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THE NEXT THREAT FOR RAIN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FORCES THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY'S WEATHER SHOULD BE CLEAR AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE TEXAS REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE A SUMMERLIKE TURN FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY EAST.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57
SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, 60% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 73, LOW 54
MONDAY: SUNNY SKIES AND WARM, HIGH 74, LOW 56
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SURFACE ANALYSIS
Weather Discussion 2: 5-15-2008
DISCUSSION...RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD INCREASE POP BY THE LATE EVENING.
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KNOXVILLE AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST REGION WHERE SEVERAL ACCOUNTS OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS WELL TO THE SOUTH, THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TOO FAR OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA AND MAKES ITS WAY OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA. RAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS IT WILL FILL IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SET UP FOR A WARM AND CLEAR SATURDAY AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO COULD FORM INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
FRIDAY: RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING SKIES LATE, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 70, LOW 56
SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57
SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS, 40% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 73, LOW 54
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SURFACE ANALYSIS
Weather Discussion 1: 5-14-2008
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPPED THROUGH ILLINOIS, MISSOURI, AND ARKANSAS. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND RISE RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM...MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED INSTABILITY HAVE TAKEN SHAPE OVER ARKANSAS, CREATING A REGION OF STRONG STORMS, BUT WILL RUN INTO COOLER, YET MOIST CONDITIONS OVER TENNESSEE, POTENTIALLY DECREASING THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH STORM CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE PATH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL DETERMINE SPECIFIC CHANCES INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...RAIN LASTS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. COLD FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, BUT TAPERS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND CLEAR SKIES RETURN FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS.
3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN
THURSDAY: RAIN LIKELY, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, 80% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 70, LOW 63
FRIDAY: RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING SKIES, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 71, LOW 56
SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57
SURFACE ANALYSIS
