Knoxville/ East TN Weather Discussions Daily Weather Discussions

Weather Discussion 24: 6-18-2008

SHORT TERM...ANOTHER COMFORTABLE FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE.  LOW DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER, BUT, AS SAID BEFORE, THESE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY IN THE THE LOW 80S FOR THE DAYTIME AND MID 50S FOR THE OVERNIGHT. 

LONG TERM...COOL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS STICK AROUND UP UNTIL SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS BUT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND HELP WARM TEMPS STARTING NEXT WEEK.  A FEW SMALL SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY COME SATURDAY, BUT WITH AS DRY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS, OUR CHANCE OF RAIN MAY FALL THROUGH.  STILL A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S.   

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY: CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE, HIGH 81, LOW 56

FRIDAY: SUNNY SKIES, CHANCE OF A STORM DURING THE EVENING, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 59

SATURDAY: NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM BRINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STORMS, STILL AROUND AVERAGE TEMPS, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 81, LOW 62

SUNDAY: ISOLATED STORMS, OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMING UP, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 62

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR, HIGH 84, LOW 63

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Weather Discussion 23: 6-17-2008

SHORT TERM...FEELING MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER RATHER THAN A FEW DAYS OUT FROM THE OFFICIAL START OF SUMMER.  HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA HAS KNOCKED OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE.  AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME IN JUNE IS 83 DEGREES.  THIS NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ALSO DRIED OUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE VALLEY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND RH AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S.  ANY SYSTEM SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OR CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRIES TO GET GOING WILL JUST BE IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS.  BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

LONG TERM...COOL WEATHER LASTS WELL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.  ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO FRONTS LATE WEEK WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A STORM CHANCE FOR THURSDAY.  BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS COMES ON YOUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT, ONCE AGAIN, ATTEMPTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND PRODUCE RAINFALL.  LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET ITS CHANCE AS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  LOOKS TO CLEAR UP INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH A WARM UP.   

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, HIGH 81, LOW 55

THURSDAY: CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE, RAIN CHANCE FOR THE EVENING, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 81, LOW 56

FRIDAY: SUNNY SKIES, CHANCE OF A STORM DURING THE EVENING, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 59

SATURDAY: NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STORMS, STILL AROUND AVERAGE TEMPS, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 83, LOW 62

SUNDAY:  ISOLATED STORMS, OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMING UP, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 85, LOW 66

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Weather Discussion 22: 6-16-2008

SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC APPROACHED THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD.  TEMPS IN THE 90S AND A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEAD TO SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.  MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCENTRATED ITSELF AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.  AS FRONT APPROACHED EAST TENNESSEE, LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE 30'S ATE AWAY AT ANY MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE PLATEAU.  DEW POINTS IN THE 60'S, TEMPS IN THE 90'S AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WERE THE PERFECT SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND THE REGION WAS EVEN INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.  BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, COOLER, CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS WILL MOVE IN.  CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S AND LOWS IN THE 50'S WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY SETS IN.  THIS IS ALSO GREAT NEWS FOR AREAS IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS THAT ARE LOOKING FOR A BREAK FROM THE RECORD SETTING RAINS AND FLOODING THEY HAVE RECEIVED IN ORDER TO DRY OUT.

LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S TO LOW 80'S.  EVENINGS WILL BE CRISP AND SPRINGLIKE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50'S.  THIS PATTERN IS A VERY UNUSUAL ONE FOR THE SUMMER IN THIS REGION.  AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVE IN ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80'S FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CLOSER TO AVERAGE, HIGH 82, LOW 56

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, HIGH 80, LOW 54

THURSDAY: CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE, HIGH 80, LOW 55

FRIDAY: SUNNY SKIES, CHANCE OF A STORM DURING THE EVENING, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 59

SATURDAY: NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STORMS, STILL AROUND AVERAGE TEMPS, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 80, LOW 60

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Weather Discussion 21: 6-13-2008

SHORT TERM...SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  WEATHER REMAINED MOSTLY QUIET FOR EAST TENNESSEE WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  SOME AREAS ACROSS THE VALLEY PICKED UP AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN WITHIN THOSE TWO DAYS.  INCREASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH SATURATED SOIL ACROSS THE AREA.  MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING.  FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR STORMS, AROUND 60%.  TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S FOR SATURDAY.  RAIN AND STORMS LAST INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 40% CHANCE AND TEMPS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE MIDWEST ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.  CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS NEAR 90 RETURN FOR SUNDAY.  BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VALLEY GIVING US ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.  TEMPS GO BE INTO THE LOW 80S BY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

Weather Discussion 20: 6-12-2008

DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION FORMED ALONG THE SMOKIES AND WERE STEERED NW BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTH.  STORMS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL MANAGED TO REACH SEVERE STATUS ACROSS SEVIER, BLOUNT, AND KNOX COUNTIES (COUNTIES TO THE EAST, SOUTH, AND NORTH OF 'KNOXVILLE' RESPECTIVELY).  LIGHTNING SPARKED A FEW HOUSE FIRES IN THE LOCAL AREA AND REPORTS OF PENNY SIZED HAIL IN WESTERN KNOX.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAINFALL COUPLED WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS YESTERDAY LED TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE SAME COUNTIES.  STORMS DEVELOPED RATHER QUICKLY IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA DUE TO A SMALL OUTFLOW FROM THE STORM TO ITS SOUTH. 

NWS MORRISTOWN RADAR LOOP

SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER MONTANA STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET IN OVER THE REGION, CONVECTION WAS STILL ABLE TO OCCUR DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30%.  TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  FRONT IS OVER OR HAS PASSED INTO CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  NWS HAS INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS TO 60%.  UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S, SO STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.  FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOIL.  MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, BLINDING RAINS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LONG TERM...  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FATHER'S DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, USHERING IN CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR JUNE.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS COMES AGAIN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE STILL UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHEN PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL OCCUR.  POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY CURRENTLY AT 20%.  SKIES WILL CLEAR ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SMOKIES, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

SATURDAY: COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, 60% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

SATURDAY: COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, 60% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

SUNDAY: CLEAR AND DRIER, GREAT FATHER'S DAY, HIGH 86, LOW 67

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SATURDAY)

Weather Discussion 19: 6-11-2008

DISCUSSION...STORMS ONCE AGAIN FIRED ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SMOKIES.  HIGHS IN THE 90S, INCREASED INSTABILITY, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEING PUMPED NORTH, AND A SLOW TO NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY LED TO THOSE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS STEERED WEATHER NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VALLEY INSTEAD OF KEEPING THEM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS IN PAST DAYS.  LARGE HAIL PRODUCING STORM TO THE SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE CREATED A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER LARGER, SLOW MOVING HAIL STORM IN WEST KNOX COUNTY.  REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN, PENNY SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WERE THE MAJORITY OF THE EFFECTS FELT BY THE WEATHER.  SOME LOCATIONS IN THE AREA PICKED UP A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN (.45 OFFICIALLY AT MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT) AND LED TO A FEW COUNTIES BEING ISSUED A URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ADVISORY.  THIS COUPLED WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER THOSE SAME AREAS HAVE LED TO FLOODING PROBLEMS THERE.  CHANCE OF STORMS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM...STORMS DIE DOWN INTO THE EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP FAR AS HIGH DEW POINTS AND THE RAIN EARLIER HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE TEMP AS FAR AS IT WILL GO AND WILL KEEP IT THERE.  TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY ON INTO FRIDAY AS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  STORMS CAUSED BY CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THEY HAVE BEEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOVER AROUND THE UPPER 80S

LONG TERM...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS COME ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.  SKIES CLEAR OUT AS WE GO INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.  TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AND BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR YOUR DAY SUNDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STILL WARM, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW, 68

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH STORMS, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

SATURDAY: COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, 50% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

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***TRIED TO RETRIEVE A RADAR VIEW OF STORMS BUT RADAR AT MRX NWS WAS DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF THE AFTERNOON.  NOTICED RADAR SWEEP STOPPED IN THE MIDDLE OF STORM COVERAGE AT WVLT.***

Weather Discussion 18: 6-10-2008

SHORT TERM...INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE FOR TODAY AFTER STORMS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON UP UNTIL ABOUT THE 2AM HOUR THIS MORNING.  REPORTS OF QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL WERE REPORTED TO WVLT AROUND 330PM MONDAY LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS LINING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SMOKIES.  THOSE STORMS FORMED BY THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  TODAY, COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OR EVEN STALL OVER THE APPALACHIANS DUE TO THE SLOWER RECESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC.  WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THAT HELPED TO SPARK STORMS ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA YESTERDAY.  WARM TEMPS, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT.  MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  STORMS ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE DAYTIME.

LONG TERM...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, FRONT MAY STALL OUT GIVING US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS FRONT COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SUMMER STORMS.  NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT AT STORMS.  AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR A COUPLE DAYS STARTING ON SUNDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN 

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY SUNNY, 60% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW 68

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STILL WARM, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW, 68

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH STORMS, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

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LOUDON, ROANE, ANDERSON CO. STORM 5 UTC TUESDAY MORNING

-1 INCH HAIL, WIND DAMAGE, FREQUENT LIGHTNING OBSERVED

Weather Discussion 17: 6-9-2008

DISCUSSION...PESKY BERMUDA HIGH STILL REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD, BRINGING WITH IT SOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR RECORD TEMPS.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING THE HIGH TEMPS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE PLAINS.  BERMUDA HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ITS WAY BACK TO THE EAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TUESDAY.  THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN HITH BY SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAY DUE TO MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  FOR TODAY THOUGH IN EAST TENNESSEE, EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET IN, THERE IS STILL MOISTURE ALOFT.  THAT ACCOMPANIED WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND, HIGHER TEMPS, AND LIFTING CAUSED BY THE MOUNTAINS, THE CHANCE OF A REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS LIKELY WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE VALLEY AND SCATTERED CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  AS ALWAYS, THREATS WITH THESE SUMMERTIME STORMS ARE USUALLY GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF UP TO A INCH.  WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING RELIEF FROM HIGH TEMPS IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY IN.  RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT AS OPPOSED TO THE ISOLATED CHANCES FROM CONVECTION CAUSED BY THE SMOKIES.  SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS LAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF FRONT PROJECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA.  BY SUNDAY, RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. 

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER, 50% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 67

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY SUNNY, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW 68

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STILL WARM, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW, 68

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Weather Discussion 16: 6-5-2008

DISCUSSION...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND POTENTIALLY SEND TEMPS INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (RECORD FOR TODAY IS 96).  MAJORITY OF SEVERE WEATHER, AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS, IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SET UP SHOP ACROSS THAT REGION.  LOW LEVEL JET, AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP FOR A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA.  CAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY HIGH, BUT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN BY THE AFTERNOON, THUS SPARKING THE SEVERE STORMS.  SINCE THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED 3 STRAIGHT SYSTEMS IN AS MANY DAYS, FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.  SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST ONCE AGAIN FOR A 3RD STRAIGHT DAY OF TORNADOES, HAIL, AND STRONG WINDS.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH BRINGING RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.  DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR THE INCREASED HEATING.  TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE VALLEY TODAY.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF TENNESSE AND THE CHANCE OF ADVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.  TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 70 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM...RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN A FEW PLACES.  SYSTEMS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ELUDE THE SOUTH BY RIDGING OVER THE TOP THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COULD POSSIBLY COME BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: SUNNY, CLEAR, AND HOT, HIGH 93, LOW 71

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, HIGH 93, LOW 72

SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT AGAIN, HIGH 93, LOW 71

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Weather Discussion 15: 6-4-2008

DISCUSSION...SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY, INDIANA, AND OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  BERMUDA HIGH IS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR YESTERDAY FELL THROUGH ALTHOUGH ALL THE RIGHT ELEMENTS WERE IN PLACE (SLIGHT INSTABILITY, HIGH DEW POINT, HIGH HUMIDITY, UPPER 80 DEGREE TEMPS).  ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COVERED THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES.  STILL IN BETTER STANDING DROUGHT-WISE HERE IN THE VALLEY WITH THE REGION BEING 8 INCHES BETTER THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR.

SHORT TERM...BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  CLOUDS WILL WILL BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR OUR WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED.  UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM...CLEAR SKIES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SENDING TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S.  ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS THE WEEK GOES ON.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHANCES STILL AROUND 20%. 

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN 

THURSDAY: CLEAR AND GETTING HOTTER, HIGH 91, LOW 69

FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, HIGH 90, LOW 69

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 87, LOW 67

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Weather Discussion 14: 6-3-2008

DISCUSSION...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A SURFACE FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD.  SYSTEM IS ALREADY TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.  MAJORITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONTAINED TO ILLINOIS, INDIANA, OHIO, AND KENTUCKY.

SHORT TERM...STORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND INCREASED HEATING TAKES PLACE OF THE AFTERNOON.  RAIN AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT IF YOU DO GET A THUNDERSTORM, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH.  STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY, BUT MOST OF THAT WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST.  RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING TEMPS UP TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO FRIDAY.  SKIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.  MAKE SURE TO LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTSIDE TO THE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY HUMID.  NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMES ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN 

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 92, LOW 69

THURSDAY: CLEAR AND GETTING HOTTER, HIGH 92, LOW 69

FRIDAY: MUGGY, HIGH 90, LOW 69

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INFRARED SATELLITE

Weather Discussion 12: 6-2-2008

SHORT TERM...CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TREKS FURTHER SOUTH.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE VALLEY.  SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOW 60S, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TUESDAY MORNING.  THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, IS FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  SEVERAL POTENT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE MOIST, UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

LONG TERM...STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OR BREAK UP.  RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY SLIGHT HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OCCUPIES OUR AREA.  PLAN TO KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.  TEMPS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 80S TO CLOSER TO 90 WITH A CLEAR UP IN THE FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 84, LOW 63

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM IN THE AFTERNOON, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 89, LOW 68

THURSDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 89, LOW 69

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 12: 5-30-2008

DISCUSSION...ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A SMALL SHORTWAVE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM OVER THE REGION.  MUCH OF THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND IS WEAKER THAN COMPARED TO THURSDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK.

SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE WARM, MOIST, SEMI-UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OF THE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE AT SEVERE STORMS.  SPC HAS FORECAST AS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.  FLATTENED RIDGE USHERS IN WESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY DIMINISH SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BY LOWERING THE DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  MAIN RISK IS STILL FOR STRONG WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE DAYTIME AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRONT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MOSTLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  STORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, ONCE AGAIN, EDGES EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY FOR MONDAY, SETTING US UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW 80S.  CLOUDS THICKEN UP AGAIN BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM LINGERS IN THE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED STORMS.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90 FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 87, LOW 67

SUNDAY: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 83, LOW 60

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, CLOSER TO AVERAGE, HIGH 82, LOW 64

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INFRARED SATELLITE

Weather Discussion 11: 5-29-2008

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AS FOG BEGINS TO CLEAR AND SOME LOW DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTH EXIT THE AREA.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGES.  STILL GOING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR TODAY, BUT THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP FOR LATER INTO THE WEEKEND.  TEMPS WILL LOWER OFF INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH THOSE CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES FOR FRIDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE VALLEY.  FOR SATURDAY, COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH AND MIDWEST.  ALONG WITH THE ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SOME POINT LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL LEAVE THE REGION FOR A GOOD CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER.  MOST LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.  NWS STILL HAS US IN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW EVERYTHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 89, LOW 67

SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 86, LOW 66

SUNDAY: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 30% CHANCE OF STORMSHIGH 83, LOW 60

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 10: 5-28-2008

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY.  SHIELD OF RAIN STILL REMAINS OVER EAST TENNESSEE WITH SLIGHT BREAKS TOWARDS THE SMOKIES.  RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY DID NOT GIVE US THE RAIN COVERAGE I WAS PREDICTING.  SYSTEM WAS STATIONARY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE BOWECHOING OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH ALABAMA IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND TRACKED EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY IN THE NORTHERN SECTION.  INGREDIENTS WERE IN PLACE WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND DEW POINT VALUES, BUT RAIN SYSTEM BROKE IN TWO LEAVING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRY AND CAUSING US TO CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY YESTERDAY.  TODAY, HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND POPS WILL BE LOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY, AND, AS HAS HAPPENED BEHIND A FEW FRONTS IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT SUBSTANTAILLY, LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW DEW POINTS.

LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH.  CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY COULD MAKE FOR A ROUGH SUNDAY.  FRONT IS STILL LOCATED OVER CANADA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, HIGH 84, LOW 60

FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 90, LOW 67

SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 9: 5-27-2008

DISCUSSION...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA IS BEGINNING TO FORM TO THE NORTHWEST OF AS IT STRETCHES FROM HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA BACK TOWARDS JACKSON, TENNESSEE.  RAINFALL WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SHORT TERM...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH A SMALL, LOW LEVEL JET AND DAYTIME HEATING LEAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR LATER TODAY.  MOST OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.  AS THE FRONT PASSES TO OUR EAST, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LEAVES OUR AREA.

LONG TERM...EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT STILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS, BUT TAPERING OFF AS THE DAY GOES ALONG.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR LATE WEEK, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND FOR AT LEAST A WEEK, IF NOT THE REST OF THE SEASON.  THE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD GIVE US THE CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY:  SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING, 60% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 81, LOW 63 

THURSDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES, WARM, HIGH 83, LOW 60

FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 88, LOW 67

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Weather Discussion 8: 5-26-2008

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING TO LATE NIGHT HOURS.  RAINS HAVE MOISTENED THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER PREVIOUSLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST WEEK.  RAINS TOTALING UP TO A HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO MORE RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TRAILS WELL SOUTH OF THE JET STREAM PATH.  A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP LEAD IN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEAVE A CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  MOS SETS UP A HIGH CHANCE FOR SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION MUCH LIKE LAST THURSDAY, TAKING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WITH IT.  TEMPERATURES  WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF INTO THE LOW 80S/ UPPER 70S LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, CHANCE OF A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL, 70% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 64

WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING, SLIGHTLY COOLER, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 78, LOW 63

THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES, WARM, HIGH 80, LOW 60

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 7: 5-22-2008

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE SET UP SHOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE HELPED TO REDUCE THE ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR TODAY.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 80 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN THIS REGION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OF OVER THE PLAINS STATES OF OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND NEBRASKA.  A WARM FRONT LADEN WITH MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A LARGE COLD POOL THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE PLAINS REGION LEAVING THEM WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  WILL BE WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM AS THE DAY CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER OR STORM ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  VALLEY IS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW 40'S.  UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80'S FOR THE WEEKEND.  SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN COMING CLOSER TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59

SATURDAY: WARM AND CLEAR, HIGH 80, LOW 56

SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH 83, LOW 59

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 6: 5-21-2008

DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH YESTERDAY THAT BROUGHT A QUICK INCH OF RAIN TO SEVERAL COUNTIES ALONG THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STILL DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE EAST COAST BUT WILL NOT AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY.

SHORT TERM...CLEAR, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM THE MIDWEST, BUT WITH LOW RH AND WESTERLY WINDS, MOST, IF NOT ALL, WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  A FEW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EAST AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE START OF THURSDAY.  SLIGHT INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FOR THE AREA, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT IT MAY NOT FORM ANY STORMS.   SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80'S FOR SATURDAY ONWARD.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY:  MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER, SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 77, LOW 57

FRIDAY: CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59

SATURDAY: WARM AND CLEAR, HIGH 81, LOW 59

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 5: 5-20-2008

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TODAY WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE DAY CONTINUES.  CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED WHILE CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON HAVE INCREASED.  WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SITS OVER THE REGION.  WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER THE VALLEY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY HAS LEFT HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY WHICH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF A FEW LATE DAY ISOLATED STORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM FOR TUESDAY AS THEY ARE TRENDING HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR EARLY AM WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA ALONG WITH NORTHWESTLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE DOWN TO OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH.  CHANCES ARE BACK ON THE RISE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORM SET-UP IS IN PLACE.  MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY COULD GET THE STORMS GOING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER TOWARDS THE LOW TO MID 80'S AS THE WEEK ENDS.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM, HIGH 77, LOW 57

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 76, LOW 57

FRIDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59

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Weather Discussion 4: 5-19-2008

DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS THE DAY CONTINUES.  A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL IMPACT TODAY'S WEATHER LEAVING THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT, A STATIONARY/ WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ALABAMA/ TENNESSEE BORDER WHICH COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF MONDAY.  WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS, INCREASING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.  ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS COMES IN CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST COULD COMBINE TO GIVE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, TAKING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN COME WEDNESDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE FORMATION OF A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80'S FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING, TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON, 80% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 74, LOW 59

WEDNESDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 77, LOW 57

THURSDAY: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 73, LOW 57

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Weather Discussion 3: 5-16-2008

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN INTO THE EVENING ON TO THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER

SHORT TERM...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS DURING SATURDAY MORNING.  AN UPPER LEVEL JET HAS SET UP OVER TENNESSEE AS A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY.  SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR, LEAVING THE VALLEY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THE NEXT THREAT FOR RAIN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FORCES THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY'S WEATHER SHOULD BE CLEAR AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE TEXAS REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE A SUMMERLIKE TURN FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY EAST.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN 

SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, 60% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 73, LOW 54

MONDAY: SUNNY SKIES AND WARM, HIGH 74, LOW 56

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 2: 5-15-2008

DISCUSSION...RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  A FEW BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD INCREASE POP BY THE LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KNOXVILLE AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST REGION WHERE SEVERAL ACCOUNTS OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECORDED.  ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS WELL TO THE SOUTH, THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TOO FAR OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA AND MAKES ITS WAY OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA.  RAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS IT WILL FILL IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE OF THE LOW.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SET UP FOR A WARM AND CLEAR SATURDAY AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO COULD FORM INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING SKIES LATE, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 70, LOW 56

SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS, 40% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 73, LOW 54

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 1: 5-14-2008

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPPED THROUGH ILLINOIS, MISSOURI, AND ARKANSAS.  THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND RISE RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.  RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM...MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EASTWARD.  THE COLD FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED INSTABILITY HAVE TAKEN SHAPE OVER ARKANSAS, CREATING A REGION OF STRONG STORMS, BUT WILL RUN INTO COOLER, YET MOIST CONDITIONS OVER TENNESSEE, POTENTIALLY DECREASING THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH STORM CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE PATH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL DETERMINE SPECIFIC CHANCES INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...RAIN LASTS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  COLD FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.  RAIN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, BUT TAPERS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND CLEAR SKIES RETURN FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY: RAIN LIKELY, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, 80% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 70, LOW 63

FRIDAY: RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING SKIES, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 71, LOW 56

SATURDAY: CLEAR AND WARM, HIGH 78, LOW 57

SURFACE ANALYSIS