Knoxville/ East TN Weather Discussions Daily Weather Discussions

Weather Discussion 34: 7-14-2008

SHORT TERM...ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING RAIN OCCURRED ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVER THE WEEKEND.  MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT OFFICALLY PICKED UP 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BROUGHT A SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN TO THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE PLATEAU REGION SEEMED TO MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION.  OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN KEPT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE THIRD TIME THIS SUMMER.  TEMPS MONDAY HOVERED AROUND THE LOW 80'S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND THOSE SAME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 60'S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 50'S!  FOR TUESDAY, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, TAKING THE TEMPS UP WITH THEM AS WELL.  EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80'S TO NEAR 90 FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND PEAK IN THE LOW 90'S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  CLEAR SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ON INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WE GET A SLIGHT SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY EVENING.  THIS IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS RIGHT NOW.  STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES AT THE MOMENT, AND MOST MODELS PROJECT ITS PATH TO ENTER THE CARRIBEAN.  WHERE IT GOES FROM THERE IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ITS POSITION, PROJECTED PATH, AND STRENGTHENING TO SEE HOW THE STORM COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE WEATHER HERE IN EAST TENNESSEE.

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH 88, LOW 64

WEDNESDAY: CLEAR AND WARMER, HIGH 90, LOW 65

THURSDAY: STAYING HOT, HIGH 90, LOW 66

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT, HIGH 89, LOW 68

SATURDAY: CLOUDS INCREASING, ANOTHER WARM DAY, HIGH 90, 69

INFRARED SATELLITE

Weather Discussion 33: 7-10-2008

SHORT TERM...THIS HAS BEEN THE BEST SET UP FOR RAIN THAT I HAVE SEEN IN THE FEW MONTHS I HAVE BEEN HERE.  MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAVE ALLOWED FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY TO PICK UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN 48 HOURS WITH HIGHER TOTALS CLOSER TO THE TRI-CITIES AREA.  FINALLY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM OUR NORTH AND WEST HAS HELD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO SOME DROUGHT-SUFFERING AREAS.  BERMUDA HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO OUR SOUTHERN STATES GIVING US HERE IN THE VALLEY A MORE SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS.  CURRENTLY THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS FLATTENED AND MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO MOVE WEST-EAST OVER OUR STATE.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA AT THIS HOUR, WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF IS STILL ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER.  RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE.  EXPECT SUNNY AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND SATURATED GROUND.

LONG TERM...WE GET SOME TIME TO DRY OUT A LITTLE BIT FOR OUR SATURDAY, AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.  NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROGRESS FAIRLY SLOWLY AGAIN THROUGH EAST TENNESSEE.  COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.  ONCE WE GET PAST SUNDAY, IT SETS UP TO BE ANOTHER TYPICAL SOUTHEASTERN SUMMER WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE SOUTH, CHANCE OF RAIN 20%, HIGH 89, LOW 67

SATURDAY: NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROLL IN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY, INCREASING CLOUDS LATE, CHANCE OF RAIN 20%, HIGH 90, LOW 70

SUNDAY: SCATTERED STORMS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, CHANCE OF RAIN 50%, HIGH 85, LOW 68

MONDAY: CLEARING ONCE AGAIN, COOLER AND PARTLY CLOUDY, HIGH 84, LOW 65

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH 87, LOW 67

TENNESSEE RAINFALL TOTALS - PAST 7 DAYS

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SOUTHEAST INFRARED

Weather Discussion 32: 7-4-2008

*****PHOENIX-MARICOPA COUNTY, AZ DISCUSSION*****

BELOW ARE THE CLOSEST OBSERVATIONS TO MY CURRENT LOCATION IN CAVE CREEK, AZ.  THESE ARE FROM THE SCOTTSDALE AIRPORT 10 MILES TO MY SOUTHEAST.

Time	Temp.	Dew	Relative	Wind	Wind	Visibility	WX	Clouds	Sea Level	Altimeter	Station	Precip	Precip			6 Hr	6 Hr
		Point	Humidity	Direction	Speed				Pressure	Setting	Pressure	1 hour	3 hour			Max	Min
(MST)	(f)	(f)	(%)		(mph)	(miles)			(mb)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)			Temp	Temp
04 Jul 8:15 pm	88	61	41	NNE	25G32	10.00		FEW100		29.79	28.208
04 Jul 7:53 pm	85	62	46	ENE	22G40	4.00	TS HZ	BKN100	1006.6	29.81	28.227	T	T
04 Jul 7:31 pm	88	61	41	NE	37G47	5.00	TS HZ	SCT100 BKN120		29.81	28.227	T
04 Jul 7:27 pm	90	59	36	NE	35G53	1.25	VCTS -RA	SCT100 BKN120		29.81	28.227	T
04 Jul 7:20 pm	91	56	30	NNE	43G53	1.50	-RA	BKN100		29.81	28.227	T
04 Jul 6:53 pm	99	55	23	VRBL	6	10.00		CLR	1005.2	29.78	28.199
04 Jul 5:53 pm	103	57	22	W	5	10.00		CLR	1004.4	29.75	28.170
04 Jul 4:53 pm	103	58	23	W	8	10.00		CLR	1004.5	29.76	28.179					104	97

JULY AND AUGUST IS TYPICALLY THE START OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON SEASON OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  TYPICALLY WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH, AND WITH THAT SHIFT IN WINDS COMES THE INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 100S AND A SOMEWHAT MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, STORMS BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE VALLEY OF THE SUN.  THE AREA RECEIVES ABOUT A THIRD OF ITS ANNUAL RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

UPON MY ARRIVAL TO PHOENIX ON THURSDAY, DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID 30S AND HUMIDITIES WERE IN THE MID 30S AS WELL.  TYPICALLY METEOROLOGISTS IN THIS AREA RELY ON THE DEW POINT REACHING 55 DEGREES AS THE THRESHOLD FOR MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS.  TODAY THESE STORMS FORMED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX ALONG THE WHITE AND RIM MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.  TEMPERATURES HOVERED AROUND 110 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ALLOWED FOR MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF TO FILL IN.  AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALLOWED FOR MORE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THE STORMS BREWING.  STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A PROBLEM OVER THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND DOWNBURST FROM THE STORMS HAVE ALLOWED FOR VERY GUSTY SUSTAINED WINDS AND EVEN FASTER GUSTS.  TONIGHT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE AROUND 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 MPH.  THICK CLOUDS OVER DUST WERE REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS UPSTREAM WERE CLEARLY VISIBLE WITH THE FLAT TERRAIN AND SPARKED ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.  THE LOW HUMIDITIES HAVE PUT A DAMPER ON RAIN FALL HERE IN PHOENIX JUST AS THEY HAVE IN KNOXVILLE.  NORMALLY HUMIDITIES ARE BETWEEN 5-25%.  TODAY THEY WERE IN THE LOW 50% RANGE, BUT STILL ONLY MANAGED A TRACE OF RAINFALL AT THE SCOTTSDALE AIRPORT.  SEVERAL MORE PASSAGES OF THE MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE TO ALLOW FOR THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.  SIMILIAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY ACROSS MARICOPA COUNTY.

SOUTHERN ARIZONA RADAR FOR 200 UTC JULY 5

Weather Discussion 32: 7-1-2008

SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND A BRISK BREEZE.  SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH.  EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SMALL WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.   

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.  UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SINK INTO THE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT EXACT TIMING AND PATH IS NOT YET KNOWN.  GUIDANCE PUTTING RAIN CHANCES AT 40%.  LUCKILY ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS DRY AS THE PAST MONTH.  THAT COMBINED WITH FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL SET UP FOR A JUICY ATMOSPHERE TO RAIN OUT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  TEMPS SHOULD HOVER IN THE LOW 80S.  

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY: GETTING MUCH WARMER, HIGH 88, LOW 63

THURSDAY: CLEAR AND DRY SKIES REMAIN, MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH 88, LOW 65

FRIDAY:  SCATTERED STORMS BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, 20% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 66

SATURDAY: STORMS LINGER, MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 83, LOW 66

SUNDAY: FRONT PASSES THROUGH EAST TENNESSEE, MOSTLY CLOUDY OTHERWISE, HIGH 84, LOW 67  

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Weather Discussion 31: 6-30-2008

SHORT TERM...SMALL SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF TWO THIN LINES OF STRONG STORMS.  JUST SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.  WE WILL NOTICE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 83 FOR THE DAYTIME AND 56 FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...RIDGE BUILDS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP TO THE MORE FAMILIAR UPPER 80S AND KEEP SKIES CLEAR.  BY INDEPENDENCE DAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BRING WET WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MIDWEST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE CULPRIT FOR ANY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS ACTIVE OR AS WET AS THE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND.  JUST A SCATTERED CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.  TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.   

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY: GETTING MUCH WARMER, HIGH 88, LOW 63

THURSDAY: CLEAR AND DRY SKIES REMAIN, MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH 86, LOW 65

FRIDAY:  SCATTERED STORMS BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 63

SATURDAY: STORMS LINGER, MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 84, LOW 66

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Weather Discussion 30: 6-27-2008

SHORT TERM...ATMOSPHERE WAS SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED AND UNSTABLE TO SET OFF STORMS BOTH AROUND LUNCH AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE STILL DRAWING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITIES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A MONTH.  TONIGHT A SMALL LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS STILL OVER THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS AREA.  AS THE FRONT PRESSES CLOSER, OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.  THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT STRONG LEAVING US IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING GOOD RAINS TO THE ALREADY PARCHED REGION.  TEMPS AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOW 80S FOR SUNDAY.   

LONG TERM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM FOR MONDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP LATE NEXT WEEK.          

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

SATURDAY: BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, 40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

SUNDAY: STORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, 50% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, ISOLATED FOR FOR THE AFTERNOON, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 63

TUESDAY: CLEARING OUT, BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGH 83, LOW 62

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGH 85, LOW 63 

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INFRARED SATELLITE

Weather Discussion 29: 6-26-2008

SHORT TERM...AS PREDICTED, MOST CONVECTION OCCURED ALONG THE MOUNTAIN AND PLATEAU REGION WITH A FEW STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY.  THOSE STORMS DIED DOWN AS DUSK TURNED TO DARK.  BERMUDA HIGH IS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO ENHANCE ANY POSSIBLE STORMS ON FRIDAY.  CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED, BUT SHOULD INCLUDE MOST OF EAST TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE VALLEY.  TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE LOW 90S FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS SETTING UP FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.  BOTH DAYS ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ISSUED BY THE SPC.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND LARGE HAIL.  THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN WEEKS AS A MAJORITY OF PAST SYSTEMS HAVE FALLEN APART DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES.  THAT IS NOT THE CASE THIS TIME AS EXPLAINED BY MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.  CHANCES ARE AROUND 50% FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE ON INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE ITS EXIT TO THE EAST.  TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN MUCH LIKE TWO WEEKS AGO.          

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: SCATTERED STORMS, MOSTLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 90, LOW 68

SATURDAY: BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, 40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

SUNDAY: STORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, 50% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, ISOLATED FOR FOR THE AFTERNOON, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 63

TUESDAY: CLEARING OUT, BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGH 83, LOW 62

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Weather Discussion 28: 6-25-2008

SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND HOT TEMPS ACROSS THE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST.  GULF COAST REGION SETTING UP WELL FOR RAIN IN OUR FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAWING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPARKING STORMS.  INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS TO THE CUMBERLAN PLATEAU AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE VALLEY.        

LONG TERM...RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ON AND WEAKEN SETTING UP FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASED FLOW FROM THE GULF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEAKENING HIGH.  CLOUDS AND MOISTURE LINGER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MOISTURE IS SLOW TO LEAVE FOR MONDAY LEAVING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS.  RAIN SHOULD DROP THE TEMP BACK INTO THE MID 80S BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP IT HOVERING THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.       

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN 

THURSDAY: CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD, OTHERWISE A GOOD DAY, HIGH 90, LOW 68

FRIDAY: SCATTERED STORMS, MOSTLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 87, LOW 69

SATURDAY: BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, 40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS, HIGH 86, LOW 67

SUNDAY: STORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING, SLIGHT CLEARING DURING THE EVENING, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 66

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, ISOLATED FOR FOR THE AFTERNOON, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 86, LOW 67

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Weather Discussion 27: 6-24-

SHORT TERM...FRONTAL PASSAGE BROUGHT LITTLE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.  COLD FRONT WOULD USUALLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 90.  SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE ARE IN THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY AS THE AREA IS DOWN 16 INCHES FROM NORMAL SINCE JANUARY 1, 2007.  MINIMAL RELIEF COULD COME LATE WEEK.  UNTIL THEN, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC   

LONG TERM...RIDGE TREKS ACROSS THE STATE KEEPING OUR TEMPS AROUND 90, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST, ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO BECOME ACCESSIBLE FROM THE GULF BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN PREDICTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.  LOCAL CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO STORMS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY BY SATURDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AT AROUND 40%.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AS SKIES WILL CLEAR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, RAIN CHANCE 20 PERCENT, HIGH 89, LOW 66 

THURSDAY: CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD, OTHERWISE A GOOD DAY, HIGH 89, LOW 68

FRIDAY: SCATTERED STORMS, MOSTLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 87, LOW 69

SATURDAY: BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, 40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 67

SUNDAY: STORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING, SLIGHT CLEARING DURING THE EVENING, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 66

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Weather Discussion 26: 6-23-08

SHORT TERM...ISOLATED CONVECTION LASTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY.  RAIN CHANCES WERE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, BUT MUCH OF THE POPS WERE OVERDONE.  ONCE AGAIN, THE ATMOSPHERE WAS TOO DRY TO ALLOW FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE ABLE TO FORM.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ROB US OF THE COMFORTABLE, AVERAGE TEMPS WE'VE BEEN USED TO FOR THE PAST 2 WEEK AND TAKE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WHERE WE USUALLY EXPECT THEM TO BE DURING THE SUMMER.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 90 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A GOOD WHILE.  THIS CLEAR WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE IN TIME FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE WAIT FOR THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS.  GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR 40 POPS ON THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE WAY THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAVE SET UP FOR FRONTAL SYSTEMS LATELY, I WILL TEND TO LEAN ON THE LOWER SIDE OF POPS FOR THOSE DAYS.  RIDGE IN PLACE ALLOWS TEMPS TO REMAIN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90 FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE WITH CONVECTION STIRRED UP BY THE PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE.

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, GETTING BACK TO THE SUMMER FEEL, HIGH 86, LOW 61

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, RAIN CHANCE 20 PERCENT, HIGH 89, LOW 66 

THURSDAY: CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD, BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS, 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW 68

FRIDAY: SCATTERED STORMS, MOSTLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

SATURDAY: BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, 40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 67

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Weather Discussion 25: 6-19-2008

SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE VALLEY.  COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER HAVE DOMINATED THE AREA FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.  SMALL WAVE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TRIED TO MOVE INTO EAST TENNESSEE, BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND A STABLE AIR MASS, THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS DIED DOWN BEFORE HAVING ANY SORT OF IMPACT.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 80S.  STORM CHANCES HAVE BACKED OFF FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM HAS APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL GIVE US OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN.  NWS DISCUSSIONS IN ALABAMA, TENNESSEE, AND KENTUCKY ARE PRETTY CONSISTANT WITH GOING 50 POP FOR SATURDAY.  THOSE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING, LEAVING A BETTER CHANCE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S AND CLOSE TO 90 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN ON MONDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW CLOUDS, HIGH 84, LOW 63

SATURDAY: NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM BRINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STORMS, STILL AROUND AVERAGE TEMPS, 50% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 81, LOW 64

SUNDAY: ISOLATED STORMS, OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMING UP, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 63

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR, HIGH 84, LOW 63

TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLEAR, RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD, HIGH 84, LOW 64

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 24: 6-18-2008

SHORT TERM...ANOTHER COMFORTABLE FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE.  LOW DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER, BUT, AS SAID BEFORE, THESE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY IN THE THE LOW 80S FOR THE DAYTIME AND MID 50S FOR THE OVERNIGHT. 

LONG TERM...COOL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS STICK AROUND UP UNTIL SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS BUT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND HELP WARM TEMPS STARTING NEXT WEEK.  A FEW SMALL SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY COME SATURDAY, BUT WITH AS DRY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS, OUR CHANCE OF RAIN MAY FALL THROUGH.  STILL A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S.   

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY: CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE, HIGH 81, LOW 56

FRIDAY: SUNNY SKIES, CHANCE OF A STORM DURING THE EVENING, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 59

SATURDAY: NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM BRINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STORMS, STILL AROUND AVERAGE TEMPS, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 81, LOW 62

SUNDAY: ISOLATED STORMS, OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMING UP, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 62

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR, HIGH 84, LOW 63

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Weather Discussion 23: 6-17-2008

SHORT TERM...FEELING MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER RATHER THAN A FEW DAYS OUT FROM THE OFFICIAL START OF SUMMER.  HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA HAS KNOCKED OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE.  AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME IN JUNE IS 83 DEGREES.  THIS NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ALSO DRIED OUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE VALLEY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND RH AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S.  ANY SYSTEM SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OR CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRIES TO GET GOING WILL JUST BE IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS.  BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

LONG TERM...COOL WEATHER LASTS WELL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.  ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO FRONTS LATE WEEK WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A STORM CHANCE FOR THURSDAY.  BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS COMES ON YOUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT, ONCE AGAIN, ATTEMPTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND PRODUCE RAINFALL.  LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET ITS CHANCE AS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  LOOKS TO CLEAR UP INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH A WARM UP.   

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, HIGH 81, LOW 55

THURSDAY: CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE, RAIN CHANCE FOR THE EVENING, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 81, LOW 56

FRIDAY: SUNNY SKIES, CHANCE OF A STORM DURING THE EVENING, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 59

SATURDAY: NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STORMS, STILL AROUND AVERAGE TEMPS, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 83, LOW 62

SUNDAY:  ISOLATED STORMS, OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMING UP, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 85, LOW 66

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Weather Discussion 22: 6-16-2008

SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC APPROACHED THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD.  TEMPS IN THE 90S AND A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEAD TO SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.  MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCENTRATED ITSELF AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.  AS FRONT APPROACHED EAST TENNESSEE, LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE 30'S ATE AWAY AT ANY MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE PLATEAU.  DEW POINTS IN THE 60'S, TEMPS IN THE 90'S AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WERE THE PERFECT SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND THE REGION WAS EVEN INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.  BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, COOLER, CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS WILL MOVE IN.  CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S AND LOWS IN THE 50'S WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY SETS IN.  THIS IS ALSO GREAT NEWS FOR AREAS IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS THAT ARE LOOKING FOR A BREAK FROM THE RECORD SETTING RAINS AND FLOODING THEY HAVE RECEIVED IN ORDER TO DRY OUT.

LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S TO LOW 80'S.  EVENINGS WILL BE CRISP AND SPRINGLIKE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50'S.  THIS PATTERN IS A VERY UNUSUAL ONE FOR THE SUMMER IN THIS REGION.  AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVE IN ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80'S FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CLOSER TO AVERAGE, HIGH 82, LOW 56

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, HIGH 80, LOW 54

THURSDAY: CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE, HIGH 80, LOW 55

FRIDAY: SUNNY SKIES, CHANCE OF A STORM DURING THE EVENING, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 59

SATURDAY: NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STORMS, STILL AROUND AVERAGE TEMPS, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 80, LOW 60

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Weather Discussion 21: 6-13-2008

SHORT TERM...SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  WEATHER REMAINED MOSTLY QUIET FOR EAST TENNESSEE WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  SOME AREAS ACROSS THE VALLEY PICKED UP AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN WITHIN THOSE TWO DAYS.  INCREASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH SATURATED SOIL ACROSS THE AREA.  MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING.  FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR STORMS, AROUND 60%.  TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S FOR SATURDAY.  RAIN AND STORMS LAST INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 40% CHANCE AND TEMPS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE MIDWEST ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.  CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS NEAR 90 RETURN FOR SUNDAY.  BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE VALLEY GIVING US ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.  TEMPS GO BE INTO THE LOW 80S BY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

Weather Discussion 20: 6-12-2008

DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION FORMED ALONG THE SMOKIES AND WERE STEERED NW BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTH.  STORMS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL MANAGED TO REACH SEVERE STATUS ACROSS SEVIER, BLOUNT, AND KNOX COUNTIES (COUNTIES TO THE EAST, SOUTH, AND NORTH OF 'KNOXVILLE' RESPECTIVELY).  LIGHTNING SPARKED A FEW HOUSE FIRES IN THE LOCAL AREA AND REPORTS OF PENNY SIZED HAIL IN WESTERN KNOX.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAINFALL COUPLED WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS YESTERDAY LED TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE SAME COUNTIES.  STORMS DEVELOPED RATHER QUICKLY IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA DUE TO A SMALL OUTFLOW FROM THE STORM TO ITS SOUTH. 

NWS MORRISTOWN RADAR LOOP

SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER MONTANA STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET IN OVER THE REGION, CONVECTION WAS STILL ABLE TO OCCUR DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30%.  TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  FRONT IS OVER OR HAS PASSED INTO CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  NWS HAS INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS TO 60%.  UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S, SO STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.  FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOIL.  MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, BLINDING RAINS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LONG TERM...  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FATHER'S DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, USHERING IN CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR JUNE.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS COMES AGAIN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE STILL UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHEN PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL OCCUR.  POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY CURRENTLY AT 20%.  SKIES WILL CLEAR ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SMOKIES, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

SATURDAY: COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, 60% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

SATURDAY: COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, 60% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

SUNDAY: CLEAR AND DRIER, GREAT FATHER'S DAY, HIGH 86, LOW 67

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SATURDAY)

Weather Discussion 19: 6-11-2008

DISCUSSION...STORMS ONCE AGAIN FIRED ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SMOKIES.  HIGHS IN THE 90S, INCREASED INSTABILITY, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEING PUMPED NORTH, AND A SLOW TO NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY LED TO THOSE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS STEERED WEATHER NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VALLEY INSTEAD OF KEEPING THEM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS IN PAST DAYS.  LARGE HAIL PRODUCING STORM TO THE SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE CREATED A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER LARGER, SLOW MOVING HAIL STORM IN WEST KNOX COUNTY.  REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN, PENNY SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WERE THE MAJORITY OF THE EFFECTS FELT BY THE WEATHER.  SOME LOCATIONS IN THE AREA PICKED UP A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN (.45 OFFICIALLY AT MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT) AND LED TO A FEW COUNTIES BEING ISSUED A URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ADVISORY.  THIS COUPLED WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER THOSE SAME AREAS HAVE LED TO FLOODING PROBLEMS THERE.  CHANCE OF STORMS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM...STORMS DIE DOWN INTO THE EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP FAR AS HIGH DEW POINTS AND THE RAIN EARLIER HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE TEMP AS FAR AS IT WILL GO AND WILL KEEP IT THERE.  TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY ON INTO FRIDAY AS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  STORMS CAUSED BY CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THEY HAVE BEEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOVER AROUND THE UPPER 80S

LONG TERM...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS COME ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.  SKIES CLEAR OUT AS WE GO INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.  TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AND BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR YOUR DAY SUNDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STILL WARM, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW, 68

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH STORMS, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

SATURDAY: COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, 50% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

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***TRIED TO RETRIEVE A RADAR VIEW OF STORMS BUT RADAR AT MRX NWS WAS DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF THE AFTERNOON.  NOTICED RADAR SWEEP STOPPED IN THE MIDDLE OF STORM COVERAGE AT WVLT.***

Weather Discussion 18: 6-10-2008

SHORT TERM...INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE FOR TODAY AFTER STORMS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON UP UNTIL ABOUT THE 2AM HOUR THIS MORNING.  REPORTS OF QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL WERE REPORTED TO WVLT AROUND 330PM MONDAY LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS LINING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SMOKIES.  THOSE STORMS FORMED BY THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  TODAY, COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OR EVEN STALL OVER THE APPALACHIANS DUE TO THE SLOWER RECESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC.  WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THAT HELPED TO SPARK STORMS ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA YESTERDAY.  WARM TEMPS, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT.  MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  STORMS ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE DAYTIME.

LONG TERM...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, FRONT MAY STALL OUT GIVING US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS FRONT COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SUMMER STORMS.  NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT AT STORMS.  AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR A COUPLE DAYS STARTING ON SUNDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN 

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY SUNNY, 60% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW 68

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STILL WARM, 30% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW, 68

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH STORMS, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 69

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LOUDON, ROANE, ANDERSON CO. STORM 5 UTC TUESDAY MORNING

-1 INCH HAIL, WIND DAMAGE, FREQUENT LIGHTNING OBSERVED

Weather Discussion 17: 6-9-2008

DISCUSSION...PESKY BERMUDA HIGH STILL REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD, BRINGING WITH IT SOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR RECORD TEMPS.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING THE HIGH TEMPS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE PLAINS.  BERMUDA HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ITS WAY BACK TO THE EAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TUESDAY.  THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN HITH BY SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAY DUE TO MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  FOR TODAY THOUGH IN EAST TENNESSEE, EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET IN, THERE IS STILL MOISTURE ALOFT.  THAT ACCOMPANIED WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND, HIGHER TEMPS, AND LIFTING CAUSED BY THE MOUNTAINS, THE CHANCE OF A REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS LIKELY WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE VALLEY AND SCATTERED CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  AS ALWAYS, THREATS WITH THESE SUMMERTIME STORMS ARE USUALLY GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF UP TO A INCH.  WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING RELIEF FROM HIGH TEMPS IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY IN.  RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT AS OPPOSED TO THE ISOLATED CHANCES FROM CONVECTION CAUSED BY THE SMOKIES.  SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS LAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF FRONT PROJECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA.  BY SUNDAY, RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. 

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER, 50% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW 67

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY SUNNY, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW 68

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STILL WARM, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 88, LOW, 68

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Weather Discussion 16: 6-5-2008

DISCUSSION...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND POTENTIALLY SEND TEMPS INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (RECORD FOR TODAY IS 96).  MAJORITY OF SEVERE WEATHER, AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS, IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SET UP SHOP ACROSS THAT REGION.  LOW LEVEL JET, AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP FOR A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA.  CAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY HIGH, BUT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN BY THE AFTERNOON, THUS SPARKING THE SEVERE STORMS.  SINCE THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED 3 STRAIGHT SYSTEMS IN AS MANY DAYS, FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.  SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST ONCE AGAIN FOR A 3RD STRAIGHT DAY OF TORNADOES, HAIL, AND STRONG WINDS.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH BRINGING RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.  DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR THE INCREASED HEATING.  TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE VALLEY TODAY.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF TENNESSE AND THE CHANCE OF ADVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.  TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 70 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM...RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN A FEW PLACES.  SYSTEMS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ELUDE THE SOUTH BY RIDGING OVER THE TOP THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COULD POSSIBLY COME BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: SUNNY, CLEAR, AND HOT, HIGH 93, LOW 71

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, HIGH 93, LOW 72

SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT AGAIN, HIGH 93, LOW 71

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Weather Discussion 15: 6-4-2008

DISCUSSION...SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY, INDIANA, AND OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  BERMUDA HIGH IS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR YESTERDAY FELL THROUGH ALTHOUGH ALL THE RIGHT ELEMENTS WERE IN PLACE (SLIGHT INSTABILITY, HIGH DEW POINT, HIGH HUMIDITY, UPPER 80 DEGREE TEMPS).  ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COVERED THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES.  STILL IN BETTER STANDING DROUGHT-WISE HERE IN THE VALLEY WITH THE REGION BEING 8 INCHES BETTER THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR.

SHORT TERM...BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  CLOUDS WILL WILL BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR OUR WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED.  UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM...CLEAR SKIES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SENDING TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S.  ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS THE WEEK GOES ON.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHANCES STILL AROUND 20%. 

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN 

THURSDAY: CLEAR AND GETTING HOTTER, HIGH 91, LOW 69

FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, HIGH 90, LOW 69

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 87, LOW 67

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Weather Discussion 14: 6-3-2008

DISCUSSION...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A SURFACE FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD.  SYSTEM IS ALREADY TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.  MAJORITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONTAINED TO ILLINOIS, INDIANA, OHIO, AND KENTUCKY.

SHORT TERM...STORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND INCREASED HEATING TAKES PLACE OF THE AFTERNOON.  RAIN AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT IF YOU DO GET A THUNDERSTORM, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH.  STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY, BUT MOST OF THAT WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST.  RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING TEMPS UP TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO FRIDAY.  SKIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.  MAKE SURE TO LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTSIDE TO THE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY HUMID.  NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMES ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN 

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 92, LOW 69

THURSDAY: CLEAR AND GETTING HOTTER, HIGH 92, LOW 69

FRIDAY: MUGGY, HIGH 90, LOW 69

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INFRARED SATELLITE

Weather Discussion 12: 6-2-2008

SHORT TERM...CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TREKS FURTHER SOUTH.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE VALLEY.  SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOW 60S, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TUESDAY MORNING.  THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, IS FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  SEVERAL POTENT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE MOIST, UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

LONG TERM...STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OR BREAK UP.  RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY SLIGHT HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OCCUPIES OUR AREA.  PLAN TO KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.  TEMPS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 80S TO CLOSER TO 90 WITH A CLEAR UP IN THE FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 84, LOW 63

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM IN THE AFTERNOON, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 89, LOW 68

THURSDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 89, LOW 69

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 12: 5-30-2008

DISCUSSION...ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A SMALL SHORTWAVE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM OVER THE REGION.  MUCH OF THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND IS WEAKER THAN COMPARED TO THURSDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK.

SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE WARM, MOIST, SEMI-UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OF THE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE AT SEVERE STORMS.  SPC HAS FORECAST AS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.  FLATTENED RIDGE USHERS IN WESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY DIMINISH SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BY LOWERING THE DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  MAIN RISK IS STILL FOR STRONG WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE DAYTIME AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRONT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MOSTLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  STORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, ONCE AGAIN, EDGES EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY FOR MONDAY, SETTING US UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW 80S.  CLOUDS THICKEN UP AGAIN BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM LINGERS IN THE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED STORMS.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90 FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 87, LOW 67

SUNDAY: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 83, LOW 60

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, CLOSER TO AVERAGE, HIGH 82, LOW 64

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

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Weather Discussion 11: 5-29-2008

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AS FOG BEGINS TO CLEAR AND SOME LOW DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTH EXIT THE AREA.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGES.  STILL GOING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR TODAY, BUT THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP FOR LATER INTO THE WEEKEND.  TEMPS WILL LOWER OFF INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH THOSE CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES FOR FRIDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE VALLEY.  FOR SATURDAY, COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH AND MIDWEST.  ALONG WITH THE ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SOME POINT LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL LEAVE THE REGION FOR A GOOD CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER.  MOST LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.  NWS STILL HAS US IN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW EVERYTHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 89, LOW 67

SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 86, LOW 66

SUNDAY: CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON, STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, 30% CHANCE OF STORMSHIGH 83, LOW 60

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 10: 5-28-2008

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY.  SHIELD OF RAIN STILL REMAINS OVER EAST TENNESSEE WITH SLIGHT BREAKS TOWARDS THE SMOKIES.  RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY DID NOT GIVE US THE RAIN COVERAGE I WAS PREDICTING.  SYSTEM WAS STATIONARY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE BOWECHOING OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH ALABAMA IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND TRACKED EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY IN THE NORTHERN SECTION.  INGREDIENTS WERE IN PLACE WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND DEW POINT VALUES, BUT RAIN SYSTEM BROKE IN TWO LEAVING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRY AND CAUSING US TO CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY YESTERDAY.  TODAY, HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND POPS WILL BE LOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY, AND, AS HAS HAPPENED BEHIND A FEW FRONTS IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT SUBSTANTAILLY, LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW DEW POINTS.

LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH.  CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY COULD MAKE FOR A ROUGH SUNDAY.  FRONT IS STILL LOCATED OVER CANADA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, HIGH 84, LOW 60

FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 90, LOW 67

SATURDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 85, LOW 67

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 9: 5-27-2008

DISCUSSION...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA IS BEGINNING TO FORM TO THE NORTHWEST OF AS IT STRETCHES FROM HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA BACK TOWARDS JACKSON, TENNESSEE.  RAINFALL WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SHORT TERM...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH A SMALL, LOW LEVEL JET AND DAYTIME HEATING LEAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR LATER TODAY.  MOST OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.  AS THE FRONT PASSES TO OUR EAST, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LEAVES OUR AREA.

LONG TERM...EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT STILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS, BUT TAPERING OFF AS THE DAY GOES ALONG.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR LATE WEEK, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND FOR AT LEAST A WEEK, IF NOT THE REST OF THE SEASON.  THE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD GIVE US THE CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY:  SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING, 60% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 81, LOW 63 

THURSDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES, WARM, HIGH 83, LOW 60

FRIDAY: CLEAR AND HOT, HIGH 88, LOW 67

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 8: 5-26-2008

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING TO LATE NIGHT HOURS.  RAINS HAVE MOISTENED THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER PREVIOUSLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST WEEK.  RAINS TOTALING UP TO A HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO MORE RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TRAILS WELL SOUTH OF THE JET STREAM PATH.  A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP LEAD IN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEAVE A CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  MOS SETS UP A HIGH CHANCE FOR SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION MUCH LIKE LAST THURSDAY, TAKING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WITH IT.  TEMPERATURES  WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF INTO THE LOW 80S/ UPPER 70S LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

TUESDAY: RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, CHANCE OF A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL, 70% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 82, LOW 64

WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING, SLIGHTLY COOLER, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 78, LOW 63

THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES, WARM, HIGH 80, LOW 60

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 7: 5-22-2008

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE SET UP SHOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE HELPED TO REDUCE THE ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR TODAY.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 80 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN THIS REGION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OF OVER THE PLAINS STATES OF OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND NEBRASKA.  A WARM FRONT LADEN WITH MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A LARGE COLD POOL THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE PLAINS REGION LEAVING THEM WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  WILL BE WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM AS THE DAY CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER OR STORM ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  VALLEY IS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW 40'S.  UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80'S FOR THE WEEKEND.  SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN COMING CLOSER TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

FRIDAY: CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59

SATURDAY: WARM AND CLEAR, HIGH 80, LOW 56

SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH 83, LOW 59

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 6: 5-21-2008

DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH YESTERDAY THAT BROUGHT A QUICK INCH OF RAIN TO SEVERAL COUNTIES ALONG THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STILL DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE EAST COAST BUT WILL NOT AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY.

SHORT TERM...CLEAR, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM THE MIDWEST, BUT WITH LOW RH AND WESTERLY WINDS, MOST, IF NOT ALL, WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  A FEW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EAST AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE START OF THURSDAY.  SLIGHT INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FOR THE AREA, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT IT MAY NOT FORM ANY STORMS.   SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80'S FOR SATURDAY ONWARD.

3-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

THURSDAY:  MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER, SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 77, LOW 57

FRIDAY: CLEAR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGH 80, LOW 59

SATURDAY: WARM AND CLEAR, HIGH 81, LOW 59

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SURFACE ANALYSIS

Weather Discussion 5: 5-20-2008

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TODAY WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE DAY CONTINUES.  CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS MORNING H