Wednesday Jul 30, 2008

Weather Discussion 42: 7-30-2008

SHORT TERM...LARGE AREA OF CIN OVER EAST TENNESSEE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  MOISTURE RIGHT NOW LOCATED IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY BUT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  EVEN WITH A 50% CHANCE OF STORMS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S, NO OTHER MECHANISM WILL SPARK STORMS OTHER THAN ONE OR TWO ISOLATED TERRAIN TYPE CONVECTION.  THESE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SMOKIES.  WITH LARGE CIN TO OVERCOME, ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL MAINLY HAVE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. 

LONG TERM...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH INTO THE VALLEY.  LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SYSTEM IS MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY AND TIMING IS STILL NOT DEFINITE.  RIDGE MOVES OUT FOR LATE WEEK BUT WE WON'T FEEL LIKE IT.  TEMPS ROCKET UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR LATE WEEK AND STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  PERIOD NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY TO START.

5-DAY FORECAST FOR KNOXVILLE, TN

WEDNESDAY: TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE CLOSER, SCATTERED STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON, 50% CHANCE OF STORMS, HIGH 89, LOW 71

THURSDAY: STORMS MOST LIKELY ALL DAY, 70% CHANCE, HIGH 85, LOW 69

FRIDAY: RIDGE MOVES BACK IN, PARTLY CLOUDY, HOT, HIGH 91, LOW 67 

SATURDAY: HOT WEATHER STICKS AROUND, HIGH 93, LOW 70

SUNDAY: SUNNY AND HOT, HIGH 92, LOW 71