Three blog posts

These three blog posts have me worried:

Testosterone Nation (Daily Dish by Andrew Sullivan)

Shanghai Cliff Diving (Calculated Risk)

Unleash Fiscal Policy Now, or More Severe Recession Ahead (Robert Reich's Blog)

The first covers some recent analysis of the consequences of China's one-child policy and the country's prediliction for male children. This is going to be huge in the future, particularly when the workforce of today's PRC has to retire. Without women, a population simply cannot grow.

The second is obvious: the Shanghai Stock Exchange has essentially jumped off a cliff since start of 2008. Considering how much economic power the Chinese have gained over the past 20 years, this will have profound, global effects on the world economy.

Taking both of these aspects into consideration, we're talking about severe economic crises facing China in both the short and mid-term intervals.

The last is about America's recession, and how the US government must recognize the wisdom of Keynesian deficit spending as the supplier of demand of last resort. For people who aren't economists, policy wonks like myself or people who had to write papers about Keynes (also myself), let me explain: Keynes basically said that Say's Law (supply will create its own demand) is not necessarily universal, particularly in times of economic downturn -- in Keynes' lifetime, that was a little something called the Great Depression, and it's apparent in our current recession.

Thus, the government is the last resort of stimulating the economy via government spending on infrastructure (which is usually deficit spending, but that goes too deep into the economics). And infrastructure is just the sort of thing our country needs. Given the high price of oil, it seems very important for our nation to invest in mass transit systems, levees and alternative energy sources.

Still, I'm not optimistic about any of it. There are going to be rough times ahead for almost everyone except the ridiculously wealthy. And it's almost to the point where I don't see any proposed solution working.


Posted by pdmccaul [Politics] ( June 30, 2008 08:01 AM ) Permalink | Comments[0]